An Anduril IPO hasn’t been announced, but employees with private-company equity can prepare for one now. Co-founder Palmer Luckey has said publicly that the company expects to go public within the next few years, so the lock-ups, taxes and concentration questions that come with an IPO are worth understanding before there’s a date on the calendar.
This article covers what an Anduril IPO could change for employees, executives and leaders, and what you can do in advance. It follows our guide to financial planning for Anduril employees, which explains RSU taxes on private shares, tender offers and concentration risk today.
If you want to work through your own awards and numbers, schedule a free 15-minute call. You can also review our services and fees to see how we work with Anduril employees.
Has the Anduril IPO been announced?
As of October 2026, Anduril hasn’t announced or filed for an IPO. Public comments from leadership describe an intention to list eventually, which is a statement of direction and not a timeline. The company could also stay private longer, raise additional private capital or offer employees another tender before it ever lists.
That uncertainty is the reason to plan for several outcomes instead of one. Nothing here predicts when an Anduril IPO could happen, what the price would be or how the shares would trade afterward. The goal is to be ready whether it happens in a year, in several years or in a form that looks different from what you expect.
What is a lock-up period and how could it affect Anduril employees?
A lock-up is an agreement that restricts insiders, including employees who hold shares, from selling for a set period after an IPO. Lock-ups often run around 180 days, though the terms vary by company, and some release shares in stages or tie releases to specific events. Your actual restrictions would come from the company’s IPO documents and your own award agreements.
The practical effect is that an IPO day isn’t necessarily a day you can sell. Your Anduril shares could have a public price while remaining locked for months, and that price can move up or down during the lock-up. If you’re counting on cash from shares to pay a tax bill, a down payment or a career transition, a lock-up can leave a gap between the paper value and the money you can reach. Any Anduril IPO plan should assume you may not be able to sell right away.
How could an Anduril IPO affect the taxes on your shares?
The tax picture depends on what you hold, and it’s worth separating three situations.
Shares that have already settled. If you received Anduril shares when RSUs settled, the value included in your income at that time generally becomes your tax basis, according to IRS guidance. An Anduril IPO wouldn’t create new compensation income on those shares. A later sale above your basis would generally produce a capital gain, and the holding period starts at settlement. Employees with several settlement dates may end up with multiple tax lots, each with its own basis and holding period.
RSUs that haven’t settled. Anduril reportedly moved from a double-trigger RSU structure toward a single-trigger structure in 2026, which we cover in our Anduril equity guide. If you hold older awards or awards with different terms, an IPO could still affect when they settle, and a large batch settling in one year can create a large amount of ordinary income. Check whether each of your awards is single-trigger or double-trigger.
Stock options. If you hold options, the tax consequences of exercising depend on the type of option, and incentive stock options can bring alternative minimum tax into the picture. Review the rules and your timing before you exercise.
Withholding adds another layer. Federal withholding on supplemental wages is generally 22% on amounts up to $1 million and 37% above that, which may not match your actual rate if you’re a higher earner. State taxes can add to the difference. Withholding that falls short of your real liability can leave you owing at filing time or facing underpayment penalties.
How much cash should you set aside before a liquidity event?
Because shares may be locked up or restricted, cash outside Anduril is what funds the taxes, and cash is also what keeps you from selling at a bad moment. The right amount depends on how many shares could settle, your expected tax rate, your state and your other income.
A useful starting point is to model a few scenarios with your CPA: a modest settlement, a large one and one where withholding falls short. Higher-income taxpayers generally need to pay at least 110% of the prior year’s tax to meet the estimated-tax safe harbor if their adjusted gross income exceeded $150,000, so a large equity year can change your estimated payments as well. Knowing those numbers ahead of time turns a surprise into a line item.
What changes for executives and senior leaders?
If you’re an officer, director or otherwise treated as an insider under company policy, becoming a public company can add rules that don’t apply to other employees. These can include trading windows, pre-clearance requirements, public reporting of your transactions and limits on when you can sell. Many insiders use pre-arranged selling plans known as 10b5-1 plans, which generally require approval and a cooling-off period before any trades begin.
For leaders, the size of the position also tends to be larger, so the concentration question matters more. Your bonus, deferred compensation, base salary and equity can all depend on the same company, and your decisions may be visible to colleagues and the market. Planning your approach in advance, with your CPA and attorney where needed, is easier than making those decisions during a trading window.
Should you sell, hold or diversify after an Anduril IPO?
There isn’t a universal answer, and nobody can reliably predict how Anduril stock would trade after an IPO. Newly public companies can swing sharply in either direction, which is one reason to decide your approach before the price is in front of you.
A practical way to frame it is to look at the percentage of your net worth tied to Anduril, including future equity, and decide what range you’re comfortable with. Writing that range down in advance can make it easier to act when the opportunity comes, instead of reacting to headlines. Many people reduce a position in stages, use specific tax lots to manage gains and consider charitable giving of appreciated shares when it fits their plans. Others keep a meaningful position because they have enough assets elsewhere to absorb the risk.
A useful test: if your employer paid you a $100,000 cash bonus instead, would you use it to buy $100,000 of company stock? If you’d choose a diversified portfolio, then holding your vested shares means making a different investment decision simply because you received it in shares rather than cash.
Our articles on diversifying a concentrated stock position and selling a large stock position before retirement walk through the tax and portfolio side of that decision.
What can you do now to prepare for an Anduril IPO?
Most of the useful preparation is organizational and doesn’t require guessing about the future.
- Gather your award agreements and list your grants, settlement dates, share counts and the value included in income at each settlement.
- Read the company’s equity plan documents and trading policies so you know the rules that apply to you.
- Ask your CPA to estimate taxes under a few settlement and sale scenarios, including the withholding gap.
- Hold enough cash outside Anduril to cover taxes and near-term spending if shares stay restricted.
- Write down the percentage of your wealth you’re comfortable having in Anduril.
- Review beneficiaries and estate documents so they reflect how your shares and accounts would pass.
- Avoid making decisions based on rumors about timing or valuation.
Planning for an Anduril IPO without predicting one
An Anduril IPO could be close, far away or different from what anyone expects, and a good plan works in each case. Understanding your awards, setting aside cash for taxes and deciding in advance how much of your wealth should depend on one company can make the eventual decision much easier.
If you’d like help working through your situation, you can schedule a conversation or review how we work. You can also read more about our approach to equity compensation and planning for high-income professionals.
Key Takeaways
- No Anduril IPO has been announced, so planning means preparing for several possible outcomes.
- A lock-up could keep you from selling shares for months after an IPO, even when a public price exists.
- Taxes depend on whether your shares have settled, which RSUs remain and whether you hold options.
- Withholding often falls short for higher earners, so cash outside Anduril matters.
- Executives and insiders may face trading windows, pre-clearance and public reporting.
- Deciding how much of your wealth should be tied to Anduril before the opportunity arrives can lead to better decisions.
About the Author
Gabriel Motta, CFP®, MBA, is the founder and principal of Inclinevest Wealth Management, a fee-only fiduciary retirement financial advisor and financial planner. He works with high-net-worth pre-retirees and retirees nationwide, with particular experience serving aerospace and defense professionals. As a retirement planner and wealth manager, Gabriel helps clients navigate retirement income planning, Social Security strategy, tax-efficient withdrawals, and equity compensation. Gabriel is a NAPFA and XY Planning Network member. Learn more about Gabriel and Inclinevest Wealth Management or schedule a conversation.
Sources
- Orange County Business Journal, Luckey: Anduril IPO in Next Few Years
- Internal Revenue Service, Publication 525, Taxable and Nontaxable Income
- Internal Revenue Service, Publication 551, Basis of Assets
- Internal Revenue Service, Publication 15, Employer’s Tax Guide
- Internal Revenue Service, Publication 505, Tax Withholding and Estimated Tax
- Internal Revenue Service, Publication 5992, Equity-Based Compensation Audit Techniques Guide
This article is for general informational and educational purposes only. It isn’t personalized investment, tax, or legal advice, and it shouldn’t be relied on as a substitute for guidance specific to your situation. Inclinevest LLC is a registered investment adviser. Registration doesn’t imply any level of skill or training. Please consult a qualified professional before making decisions about your own financial circumstances.
